ITNT’s 2010 Predictions

I’m not sure why I decided to jump on the band wagon of yearly predictions. It surely doesn’t prove anything about my knowledge of the industry, but it is fun to see how accurate I was when the year draws to a close. So what am I predicting for 2010? Let’s take a look.

1.) 2010 Won’t be the “Year of the Linux Desktop”
To be fair, I don’t really believe that any year will be the year of the Linux desktop, because if anything Linux will catch on gradually, as it has been. However, I’m sure there are people out there that will blog about how they think Google’s “Chrome OS” will take over and destroy Windows. For me, I am not expecting Chrome OS to launch until the end of the year, and there just isn’t enough time in 2010 for Google to launch Chrome OS AND take over everything.

Do I think Google’s operating system will ever replace Windows? I haven’t had enough time to play with it to generate a valid opinion. From the outside looking in, not having local apps and data is a concept that may be too deep for the casual user to understand. Although I predict a large market gain for Linux, it isn’t going to be the year of the Linux desktop. Maybe no year ever will be, the Windows juggernaut cannot be destroyed in a single year but only gradually.

2.) The Distribution of the Year will be Ubuntu 10.04
For me personally, I decided to use Arch Linux for all of my Linux needs going forward. Will Ubuntu 10.04 win me back? It’s possible, as I predict a very strong showing from Ubuntu this year, one that will take a large step in pushing it forward as a serious contender for the desktop. I predict Canonical to put their best foot forward and release quite possibly the best version of Ubuntu ever, one that will probably have the entire industry buzzing.

3.) Ubuntu 10.10 will not Impress
When I made my previous prediction about Ubuntu 10.04, notice that I predicted it to be the distribution of the year, but there is still one more version of Ubuntu that is scheduled to be released before the year is over. I believe that 10.04 will be a very strong release, but 10.10 will be one of the most experimental releases of Ubuntu yet and will probably turn off quite a lot of people as a result.

4.) Dell Reaffirms Commitment to Open Source
Now that the buzz surrounding Windows 7 has settled down, users will be more torn than ever over which OS to choose for their computer. Dell will at some point choose to not bury their open source offerings so far into their site, and you may find Linux options in places that are more common. Expect Dell to offer a Linux option that’s not particularly related to Ubuntu, and more Linux options in general. In addition, expect to hear rumors of Dell creating their own distribution based on Ubuntu.

5.) Apple’s iPhone Finally Meets its Match
While I don’t necessarily believe that the iPhone will lose a ton of marketshare next year, I believe that in 2010 the stage will be set for Apple to finally meet it’s match. Previous iPhone competitors have been unveiled last year, and one by one they fell to the might of Apple. Now that the other major players in the cell phone game have learned hard lessons due to their failures, expect them to use what they’ve learned to finally give the iPhone a challenge.

6.) Big Changes at Microsoft
I believe that Microsoft will make some big changes in 2010, maybe even new directions. Expect Steve Balmer to either have his seat challenged or to be forced to resign due to his bone-headed decisions, price drops in Microsoft software due to the challenge of competing with the free software packages that we all have access to, and first talks of the successor to the XBox 360 to be fleshed out.

7.) Sony’s PS3 Takes Over
Expect Sony to have a strong showing with the PS3 this year, and for it to even come out on top. I predict that by the end of 2010 at the very latest, the PS3 will be number one in sales, followed by the XBox 360, Nintendo DS, and the Nintendo Wii in that order. I know this is a bold prediction considering the sales of both Microsoft and Nintendo, but we’ll see if I’m right.

8.) Firefox Gains Huge Marketshare too
With Windows still holding major marketshare on the desktop, expect Firefox to use it as an advantage and market itself to Windows users this year as a springboard to higher marketshare. Newer versions of Firefox will still be available for the same platforms as before, but the Windows versions will get the most love during development which will make it cater especially to Windows users, thus a larger gain in usage statistics.

9.) KDE Takes over the Linux Desktop
With KDE 4.3 being extremely decent last year, 4.4 and even 4.5 will be even more so. With GNOME unable to release a new major revision until near the end of 2010, KDE will have gained major marketshare by that time. This doesn’t meant that distributions such as Ubuntu will switch to KDE instead of GNOME, but expect the KDE desktop to become the more popular choice and to even challenge Microsoft a bit this year too, as I believe KDE will also surprass Windows in terms of overall quality when it comes to the interface. (In some ways, it already has).

10.) Windows 8 to be Revealed in Depth
With Chrome OS debuting toward the end of the year, and Ubuntu 10.04 releasing their strongest release yet, expect Microsoft to start the media buzz of Windows 8 by revealing it in depth. With Linux gaining prominence, Microsoft doesn’t want anyone to forget about their OS and I believe that they will claim at some point this year that Windows 8 will be lighter and faster than Windows 7.

What are your predictions for 2010? Post them in the comments.